Baseball fans, brace yourselves for a clash of titans! The Seattle Mariners' pitching strategy is locking horns with the Toronto Blue Jays' aggressive hitting approach, and the outcome is far from certain. In this high-stakes matchup, we're witnessing an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object, leaving us all on the edge of our seats. But here's where it gets controversial: can the Blue Jays' penchant for swinging at strikes outmaneuver the Mariners' zone-dominating pitching philosophy? (https://www.lookoutlanding.com/seattle-mariners-analysis/135959/first-pitch-swing-vs-first-pitch-strike-what-will-triumph-in-blue-jays-vs-mariners-matchup)
Game 1 kicked off with a bang as George Springer launched a home run off Bryce Miller's very first pitch. That fastball, though well-placed and speedy, might have benefited from a slight adjustment in height to induce weaker contact. And this is the part most people miss: after that initial hiccup, Miller and the Mariners' pitching staff found their rhythm, carrying their dominance into Game 2. With the exception of Emerson Hancock, who struggled in low-pressure situations, the Blue Jays swung at nearly or over 50% of the Mariners' pitches. Take Miller, for instance, who saw 40 swings out of 76 pitches, or Logan Gilbert, with 34 swings out of 58. Even Carlos Vargas, despite his inconsistency, coaxed 17 swings from 36 pitches. In Game 1, the Mariners' high-leverage relievers—Gabe Speier, Matt Brash, and Andrés Muñoz—needed just eight pitches each to secure their outs, with minimal swings from the Blue Jays.
Let's be clear: the Blue Jays are no strangers to swinging. They ranked fifth in baseball for swing rate during the regular season, at 48.7%, trailing only high-contact teams like Houston and Tampa Bay. This aggressive approach is a cornerstone of their strategy, instilled by hitting coach David Popkins (https://go.skimresources.com/?id=1025X1734621&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.mlb.com%2Fnews%2Fdavid-popkins-blue-jays-hitting-coach-philosophy), who advocates for attacking pitches in the zone while minimizing strikeouts. But here's the catch: a high swing rate doesn’t guarantee success. Take the Rockies, for example, who led the league in swings this year but struggled overall. The Blue Jays, however, have avoided that fate by pairing their aggressiveness with better contact and damage on pitches in the zone.
Yet, against the Mariners, the Blue Jays are swinging at 54% of non-Hancock pitches without much to show for it. Springer's first-pitch homer was their only home run in the first two games. Some of this can be chalked up to bad luck, like Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s hard-hit outs, including the hardest-hit ball of Game 2. Still, Vladdy went 0-for-3 in that game with three groundouts, one of which was hit at just 63.5 mph off Eduard Bazardo. The Blue Jays also managed six hits in Game 2 with exit velocities of 70 mph or below, and seven such hits in Game 1, off different Mariners pitchers.
Here’s where opinions might diverge: is the Mariners' success due to their pitching precision, or are the Blue Jays simply not capitalizing on their opportunities? Manager Schneider noted before Game 3 that the ball-in-play quality hasn’t met expectations, crediting the Mariners for pitching effectively in safe zones. However, a closer look at the pitch charts reveals that while there’s no glaring weakness in the middle of the plate, a majority of those pitches (20 out of the total) were thrown in 0-0 counts. Of those, 11 resulted in called strikes, three in fouls, and five in first-pitch outs.
There’s an element of misfortune for the Blue Jays, but the Mariners' strategy of challenging hitters early and getting ahead in counts has been effective. This approach has been a hallmark of their season, with Mariners pitchers ranking third in first-pitch strike percentage (over 64%) and fourth in pitches thrown in the zone. They also average the sixth-fewest pitches per plate appearance, a testament to their efficiency. The league’s highest zone percentage swing (70.1%) underscores their ability to induce swings and secure outs.
As the series progresses, the Blue Jays will likely adjust their approach against George Kirby in Game 3. Schneider stressed the need to be deliberate and aware against Kirby, who, if he’s in the zone, could face even more swings in 0-0 counts. However, if Kirby isn’t as aggressive in the zone, as he’s shown at times this season, the patient Blue Jays might lay off those pitches, waiting for the right moment to strike. The onus will be on Kirby and the Mariners' staff to maintain their precision and limit damage from Toronto’s swing-happy lineup, with a little help from luck along the way.
What do you think? Is the Mariners' pitching strategy sustainable, or will the Blue Jays' adjustments turn the tide? Let us know in the comments—this debate is far from over!
